A revised forecast for global smartphone shipments in 2024 predicts a 5.8% year-on-year (YoY) increase, with shipments expected to reach 1.23 billion units. This growth is attributed to a surge in demand for affordable Android devices in emerging markets and heightened interest in smartphones with generative AI (GenAI) features in the premium segment.
Nabila Popal, a senior research director, highlighted that Android devices are projected to grow at a significantly higher rate compared to iOS. Android is expected to see a 7.1% rise, while iOS is forecasted to grow by just 0.8%. This difference is driven by growing competition for Apple in China and a high base of comparison for iPhone sales in the previous year.
However, iOS may still see an upside depending on the success of upcoming GenAI features in the iPhone 16, along with Apple’s ability to form local AI partnerships in China. The forecast anticipates a stronger performance for iOS in 2025, with 4% YoY growth projected due to advancements in Apple Intelligence.
The report also emphasizes the rapid growth of the GenAI smartphone segment, which is forecasted to increase by 344%, capturing 18% of the total market by the end of 2024. Research director Anthony Scarsella noted that flagship models will increasingly incorporate on-device GenAI capabilities, helping premium models stand out.
“Though GenAI smartphones are relatively new, premium flagship models will continue to adopt these features to differentiate themselves from competitors,” Scarsella explained. The average selling price for GenAI-equipped smartphones is predicted to be more than double that of non-GenAI devices, further contributing to the trend toward premiumization in the industry.
The recovery of the smartphone market follows a difficult period. Data shows a 12% increase in shipments during the first quarter of 2024, followed by 9% growth in the second quarter, bolstering confidence in the market’s performance for the latter half of the year.
Another report from Canalys confirmed this upward trend, noting that global smartphone shipments reached 288.9 million units in the second quarter of 2024. The market has grown for three consecutive quarters, driven by product innovation and improved business conditions.
Samsung maintained its lead with 53.5 million units shipped, despite only a modest 1% increase in shipments. Apple secured second place, shipping 45.6 million units, supported by strong performance in North America and emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region. Xiaomi followed closely with 42.3 million units shipped, achieving a 15% market share, driven by its competitive product lineup.
In China, local brands are expected to integrate GenAI features to differentiate themselves in the premium segment, capturing growing demand for high-end devices and extending successful strategies to global markets.
Samsung is likely to focus on enhancing its Galaxy ecosystem with exclusive GenAI features, while Apple aims to boost replacement demand through its AI strategy, incorporating hybrid models, enhanced privacy, and personalized Siri capabilities.
While the smartphone market is not expected to experience double-digit growth in 2024, analysts predict mid-single-digit growth, driven by recovering inventory levels, reduced import restrictions, and improved economic conditions.
For additional insights on AI and its applications across various industries, upcoming events like AI & Big Data Expo in Amsterdam, California, and London are excellent opportunities to hear from industry leaders and explore the latest technological innovations.